IGARA EAST BY-ELECTION FOR TOMORROW: MAWANDA VS MARTIAL, WHAT ARE THE CHANCES FOR EACH?

Posted On 13 Dec 2017

By : mk

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BY WILBER MUHWEZI KASIBANTE
IN BUSHENYI—
Campaigns for Igara East by election closed at mid night Dec. 12, 2017 with each of the six candidates hoping to win tomorrow Dec. 14, by-election. However the votes are between Micheal Mawanda Maranga [independent] and Andrew Martial [NRM]. Other candidates are; Benjamin Katana [independent], Christine Ninsiima Bekunika [FDC] Benards Kananura [Independent] and David Amstrong [independent].
WHAT WERE DISADVANTAGES FOR ANDREW MARTIAL THROUGHOUT THE CAMPAIGNS

ANDREW MARTIAL
To begin with, most of the NRM Leaders from the district to village never supported him including the NRM chairman for Ibaale sub-county Mr. Byakwaga Sebastiano Aka Game where he [Martial] is born
Two, NRM members of parliament from Bushenyi district; Magyezi [Igara West], Arinda Cow boy [Bushenyi Ishaka municipality] and Minister Mary Karooro [Bushenyi district women] never appeared at any of Martial’s rallies neither appeared on any radio station. Cow boy and Karooro only appeared on the last rally by president Museveni yesterday.
Martial only depended on MPs outside Bushenyi district like Capt. Donozio Kahonda from Mitooma district, Charles Ngabirano from Rwampara Mbarara and Rosette Kajungu from Mbarara as well.
The media factor has been a big issue. Mawanda has two radio stations in Bushenyi district; Hunter fm and Theo fm and his campaign agent Geofrey Kibeherere also owns World fm. All these three radio stations aired all mawanda campaign rallies live whereas Martial’s had none. He would appear once in awhile on Bushenyi FM.
Voters still accused him of running away from the constituency after winning the elections in 2016. For one and half years, martial was too rare in Igara east because he is doing a degree in law at KIU.
Lastly, president Yoweri Museveni’s rallies in Ruhumuro and kyeizooba sub-counties yesterday, Instead of Museveni to attack Mawanda that he is NOT NRM. Museveni instead said that both candidates Mawanda and Martial are NRM members. He at worst attacked Martial for having refused to support removal age remit of president from the constitution. This worked for Mawanda.

WHAT HAS BEEN HIS ADVANTAGES?
Tycoon Hassan Basajabalaba’s support to him which includes even funding his campaign.
Religion factor; Martial Being is a catholic and where Catholics by all means vote their own candidate. Mawanda is a protestant.
NRM secretariat from kampala will also help martial.
WHAT ARE MAWANDA’S ADVANTAGES IN TOMORROW’S ELECTION
Mawanda funded many projects in the constituency during his five year term from 2011—2016. Like re-opening schools closed during Amanya Mushega’s tenure and General developmental projects.
Support by NRM structures from the grassroot to the district
President Musevenis failure to decampaign Mawanda on his two rallies. He Instead attacked martial.
Media; Out of five radio stations in Bushenyi district, Mawanda used on full time basis three radio stations to broadcast live his rallies.
Financial capacity; Mawanda was able throughout the campaign period to very well fund is campaign.
Sympathy vote; supporters look at him as one whose votes were stolen therefore this is the time when he should rewarded.
DISADVANTAGES FOR MAWANDA

MICHEAL MAWANDA
Tycoon Hassan’s support to Martial by giving him financial power.
NRM secretariat’s support to flag bearer.
The strength of young politician Benjamin Katana who also comes from his home sub-county, Kyeizooba.
PROJECTIONS ON HOW THE TWO WILL PERFORM
Sub-county Expected winner
Bumbaire s/c Mawanda

Ruhumuro s/c martial
Kyabugimbi s/c mawanda
Kyeizooba s/c mawanda

Ibaale s/c Martial

According to www.mknewslink.com news website projections, below is how all the candidates will follow one another.
CANDIDATE POSITION
Mawanda Micheal 1st
Andrew Martial 2nd
Benjamin Katana 3nd
Christine Bekunika 4th
Benards Kananura 5th
David Amstrong 6th

BENJAMIN KATANA A NEW COMER WHO IS EXPECTED TO DO WELL IN THE RACE